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Showing posts with label Lawyers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lawyers. Show all posts

10 June 2013

Misused Mathematics of DNA Sampling



Mathematics is the basis of modern technology. But it is also the basis of many false assertions. I have written previously about how statistics are (miss)used in stock market analysis. This article looks at the miss-application of math in DNA Sampling.



When DNA experts testify in court, they typically describe the probability of a false match as 1 in 100 trillion (1/100,000,000,000,000). That seems like a virtual certainty. But where did they get this number?



First a little background on DNA Sampling: Technicians extract DNA, use enzymes to cut it into pieces, process it then compare the different segments, or loci as they call it. To be admissible in court, there must be matches on 9 loci, or segments. DNA analysts typically use 13 loci, and empirical evidence suggests a random match occurs about 1 in 10 times for one loci. These two pieces of information is where the above number comes from;



(1/10)13



This is pure mathematics. The probability of two DNA samples matching exactly is 1 in 100 trillion. But there is problem – “empirical evidence suggests a random match occurs about 1 in 10 times for one loci”. This is one of innumerable cases of getting subjective probability mixed up with frequentist probability. The former measures knowledge of an event, the latter measures mathematical probability. The problem with this particular mixup is that we don’t know for a fact that random matches occur at an exact frequency of 1 in 10. There is missing information, specifically, do the random matches always occur at this rate, or are there circumstances we haven’t encountered where this is not the case?



The Empirical Case



A study was done on the Arizona CODIS DNA database that found 1 in every 228 profiles in the database matched another profile in the database at nine or more loci. This in a database containing only 65,493 entries.



Conclusion



So the miss-applied mathematical probability of false DNA matches is claimed to be 1 in trillions (depending on number of loci). Real world practice reveals a probability of 1 in 228 (or less, with a larger dataset). Which is correct? Which number should be used in court? Definitely not the mathematical one, because it is falsely applied.





Addendum

What is the frequentist probability of finding an exact false match in a database containing 10 million entries? You may be surprised to find out the odds are 51%. 




31 March 2013

American Taxpayers Supporting Jihad and Islamic Sharia Law



Does it get any more bizarre than this?

The steady implementation of Islamic sharia law in the United States is a fascinating, complex and deeply disturbing topic of which most Americans are blissfully unaware. This post focuses only on the case of how the American taxpayer has been duped into supporting a system of "laws" that are incompatible with the U.S. Constitution.

Sharia is:

“a wide-ranging body of law and personal rules, regulating matters of jurisprudence, hygiene, politics, business, banking, family, sexuality, diet, and society. It is meant to serve as the governing principle both within the Muslim world and for Muslims living outside it”.

It is obviously incompatible with Western style democracy. Limited “NO-GO” zones have been implemented in western European countries where sharia law governs every aspect of society including criminal cases, trials and punishments. These areas were established under the threat of terrorism. Needless to say, there are many cases of problems. There has even been an Islamic “Court” established in Texas, the “Heartland of American Conservatism.” [1]

The largest supplier of Sharia Compliant insurance products is, yes, AIG. With the Federal Governments assumption of 77.9% of AIG, the American Taxpayer, through the evil Troubled Asset Relief Program, has been placed in the curious position of supporting a way of life  (Sharia)’ that is demonstrably incompatible with our Constitution, government and way-of-life. Since AIG is not required to account for the TARP money it is entirely possible that some American Taxpayer money has been used to support terrorism and attacks on our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.  This is possible, perhaps even likely, because Sharia requires some funds to be “cleansed”. One way to “cleanse” money is to funnel it to organizations engaged in jihad. Sharia also requires a “tax” of up to 20%. This tax is also used for, among other things, the support of Jihad.

Fortunately, but maybe a matter of too-little-too-late, a lawsuit has been filed challenging this unholy alliance. The lawsuit, Murray v. Geithner et al., was brought against the Federal Reserve and the Treasury by the Thomas More Law Center on behalf of Kevin Murray, a former Marine who served honorably in Iraq to defend the United States from Islamic terrorists. President Obama’s Justice Department sought to have the lawsuit dismissed on the technical grounds that the plaintiff did not have standing.  Again, fortunately, the government (our government, isn’t this bizarre?) motion was not granted. In denying the government’s motion, Judge Zatkoff wrote;

Pursuant to the EESA, the government has injected AIG with tens of billions of dollars, without restricting or tracking how this considerable sum of money is spent. At least two of AIG’s subsidiary companies practice Sharia-compliant financing, one of which was unveiled after the influx of government cash. After using the $40 billion from the government to pay down the $85 billion credit facility, the credit facility retained $60 billion in available credit, suggesting that AIG did not use all $40 billion consistent with its press release. Finally, after the government acquired a majority interest in AIG and contributed substantial funds to AIG for operational purposes, the government co-sponsored a forum entitled “Islamic Finance 101.” These facts, taken together, raise a question of whether the government’s involvement with AIG has created the effect of promoting religion and sufficiently raise Plaintiff’s claim beyond the speculative level, warranting dismissal inappropriate at this stage in the proceedings.

Congresspersons Frank Wolf and Sue Myrick have also taken AIG to task over this topic:

".. your touting of Shariah finance is much like your marketing and promotion of subprime loans. Many in the financial industry believed subprime loans were a great way to make money and would cause no harm. Do not make the same mistake by supporting shariah finance, because, as we have stated, there are far more dire consequences."

"You may defend your decision to offer Shariah products and will probably state that they have no real ties to Shariah Law, and therefore, pose no threat. You are wrong. "

- Letter from Congresspersons Frank Wolf and Sue Myrick to AIG CEO Edward Liddy, December 8,2008

Even individuals adamantly opposed to getting involved with anything political should follow this topic because it has the potential to affect our lives in ways we have never dreamed.


CASE UPDATE (June 1, 2012): The Sixth Circuit rules that Murray lacks standing to challenge the federal government's use of taxpayer funds to support sharia.  Read the opinion here.  Read more about opinion here.

CASE UPDATE (June 15, 2012): AFLC files petition for review asking the full court of the Sixth Circuit to review the decision rendered by a three-judge panel. Read petition here.

CASE UPDATE (July 12, 2012): The Sixth Circuit denied our petition for full court review of the decision rendered by a three-judge panel which held that a federal taxpayer lacked "standing" to challenge the constitutionality of the federal government's use of taxpayer funds to support sharia.  We are now working to take this case to the U.S. Supreme Court.

CASE UPDATE: (October 10, 2012): AFLC filed a petition for a writ of certiorari in the United States Supreme Court, asking the Court to review the appellate court decision which held that a federal taxpayer lacked “standing” to challenge the constitutionality of the federal government’s use of taxpayer funds to support sharia. You can read the petitition here.





[1] The Court of Appeals for the Second District of Texas, Ft Worth, has granted a ruling to The Texas Islamic Court to enforce rulings. This means the State of Texas is obligated to enforce decisions made by Islamic clerics or advisors.

28 February 2013

Lawyers Defining Morality



A little background. Two years ago my father came upon an accident where a car had collided with a light pole, shearing the light pole off at the base. The pole was lying across the roadway, so my father stopped to try to warn oncoming traffic of the hazard. Before he could get in a safe position a car came speeding around the curve and struck the metal light pole which in turn struck my father, breaking his legs and back and rupturing his stomach.
Months later, in a deposition by the attorney for the insurance company of the driver of the second car that struck the light pole, this conversation took place;

Attorney: Are you a paramedic?
My father: No sir
Attorney: Are you a doctor?
My father: No sir
Attorney: Then you had no business at the scene of the accident. Because your vehicle was not involved, your proper course of action would have been to continue driving and not stop.

What??? I’m not a lawyer (thank goodness) but I was under the impression that there was a crime known as “failure to stop and render aid”. Not to mention helping someone in need is the right and honorable thing to do. But according to this idiot attorney, if you aren’t a doctor or EMT the injured don’t need your help.

Of course, if it were this attorney’s spouse or child injured and in need of help he probably wouldn’t object if you weren’t a doctor. But he is willing to abandon human decency in an attempt to “win” and get his employer (the insurance company) off the hook for my father’s medical bills.

On an even more personal note, years ago I pulled an injured woman from an overturned car in the middle of the night as others stood by watching. I never gave much thought to those that did nothing. After hearing my dad’s story, I wondered for a split-second.. “Am I stupid”? Here is what I’ve decided: If I had it to do over again, I would do it the same way. Others can let corporations and their lawyers define morality for us, but I can’t. So sue me, take what little I have (not much) but I won’t let a soulless lawyer make me choose between keeping my material things or my conscience.
  
What do you think? Should we mind our own business and protect ourselves and our assets? Or should we help those in need, even if it costs us?