Cipolla’s Five Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Law 1: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

No matter how many idiots you suspect yourself surrounded by, Cipolla wrote, you are invariably lowballing the total. This problem is compounded by biased assumptions that certain people are intelligent based on superficial factors like their job, education level, or other traits we believe to be exclusive of stupidity. They aren’t. Which takes us to:

Law 2: The probability that a certain person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

Cipolla posits stupidity is a variable that remains constant across all populations. Every category one can imagine—gender, race, nationality, education level, income—possesses a fixed percentage of stupid people. There are stupid college professors. There are stupid people at Davos and at the UN General Assembly. There are stupid people in every nation on earth. How numerous are the stupid amongst us? It’s impossible to say. And any guess would almost certainly violate the first law, anyway.

Law 3. A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

Cipolla called this one the Golden Law of stupidity. A stupid person is one who causes problems for others without any clear benefit to himself.

The uncle unable to stop himself from posting fake news articles to Facebook? Stupid. The customer service representative who keeps you on the phone for an hour, hangs up on you twice, and somehow still manages to screw up your account? Stupid.

This law also introduces three other phenotypes that Cipolla says co-exist alongside stupidity. First there is the intelligent person, whose actions benefit both himself and others. Then there is the bandit, who benefits himself at others’ expense. And lastly there is the helpless person, whose actions enrich others at his own expense. Cipolla imagined the four types along a graph, like this:

Stupidity, graphed. Photo by Vincedevries on Wikimedia, licensed under CC-BY-SA 4.0

The non-stupid are a flawed and inconsistent bunch. Sometimes we act intelligently, sometimes we are selfish bandits, sometimes we act helplessly and are taken advantage of by others, and sometimes we’re a bit of both. The stupid, in comparison, are paragons of consistency, acting at all times with unyielding idiocy.

However, consistent stupidity is the only consistent thing about the stupid. This is what makes stupid people so dangerous. Cipolla explains:

Essentially stupid people are dangerous and damaging because reasonable people find it difficult to imagine and understand unreasonable behavior. An intelligent person may understand the logic of a bandit. The bandit’s actions follow a pattern of rationality: nasty rationality, if you like, but still rationality. The bandit wants a plus on his account. Since he is not intelligent enough to devise ways of obtaining the plus as well as providing you with a plus, he will produce his plus by causing a minus to appear on your account. All this is bad, but it is rational and if you are rational you can predict it. You can foresee a bandit’s actions, his nasty maneuvres and ugly aspirations and often can build up your defenses.

With a stupid person all this is absolutely impossible as explained by the Third Basic Law. A stupid creature will harass you for no reason, for no advantage, without any plan or scheme and at the most improbable times and places. You have no rational way of telling if and when and how and why the stupid creature attacks. When confronted with a stupid individual you are completely at his mercy.

All of which leads us to:

Law 4: Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

We underestimate the stupid, and we do so at our own peril. This brings us to the fifth and final law:

Law 5: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

And its corollary:

A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.

We can do nothing about the stupid. The difference between societies that collapse under the weight of their stupid citizens and those who transcend them are the makeup of the non-stupid. Those progressing in spite of their stupid possess a high proportion of people acting intelligently, those who counterbalance the stupid’s losses by bringing about gains for themselves and their fellows.

Declining societies have the same percentage of stupid people as successful ones. But they also have high percentages of helpless people and, Cipolla writes, “an alarming proliferation of the bandits with overtones of stupidity.”

“Such change in the composition of the non-stupid population inevitably strengthens the destructive power of the [stupid] fraction and makes decline a certainty,” Cipolla concludes. “And the country goes to Hell.”

When disaster comes,

 When disaster comes, you will find that all the myths you once cherished are of no use to you. You will see what it is like to live in a society where morality has collapsed, causing all your assumptions and prejudices to crumble before your eyes. And after it’s all over, you will watch as, slowly but surely, these harshest of lessons are forgotten as the witnesses pass on and new myths take their place.

• Stanisław Aronson - Survivor of the Polish resistance under Nazi occupation.

Best AR Mod Since Stoner

Best AR mod since Eugene Stoner invented the platform

or....

Fixing the rear takedown pin detent spring

The most commonly lost parts of the AR rifle platform are the takedown detent springs. Installing the buffer tube to the lower receiver requires coordinating everything while holding the rear takedown pin detent spring from flying out or getting crushed/pinched by the sling adapter plate (or buttstock).

Here's the permanent fix:

Tap the detent spring hole for a #4 x 1/8th" set screw. This probably should be the case not only with new lower receivers but should've been implemented from near the beginning of the platform. But it wasn't, and still isn't. But, the fix is easy.

The rear takedown pin detent spring hole is already roughly the correct size to tap for a #4-40 setscrew. The Colt specification for the lower reciever rear takedown detent spring hole is 0.093" +/- 0.004". The recommended drill bit size for a #4-40 setscrew tap is #43 which is 0.089". 

Chuck a 4-40 tap in a cordless drill and slowly tap the hole. Go slow and reverse the drill often to clear the aluminum (or polymer) chips. 

The detent spring should be trimmed the length of the new setscrew; 1/8" or 3/16", whichever length you use. 

Use a 4-40 x 1/8" or 4-40 x 3/16" NC setscrew. There is no real need to use thread compound because the setscrew has nowhere to go. But if you prefer, you can add a tiny dab of blue thread locker. 

No more spring lauches!

To save some searching, here are links to the tap and setscrews;¹

Century Drill and Tool 95302 4-40 NC Tap and 43 Drill Combo Pack

4-40 x 1/8" Socket Set Screws Cup Point Stainless Steel 10 Pack with .050 Hex Key Wrench (1/8" Length

¹ Disclaimer:If you buy through the links Amazon might pay me a few cents.

The Master Violin Makers

Origins

It is amazing to consider that the violin was produced, in it's near final form, about 1555. The strongest evidence suggests Andre Amati was the the first violin maker. There were certainly many other stringed instruments before the invention of the violin, beginning with the very first bowed stringed instruments originating from Central Asia. 

Most inventions are refined and improved, sometimes to the point that the contemporary versions barely resemble the originals. This is not so with the violin. Other than some modifications to accommodate modern music styles, the violin remains the same as it was in the late 16th century. Many violins are now made from the same materials, using the same methods as the original makers. Countless modifications have been tried over the centuries, but the finest modern violins share the same characteristics with those made over 400 years ago.

The Amati Family

Andre Amati was the progenitor of the Amati family of violin makers, whose influence lasted throughout the Golden Age of violin making. Other makers of the time include Gasparo da Salo and Giovanni Maggini. 
In 1630 bubonic plague struck southern Europe, killing 25% of the population with some cities in Northern Italy losing over half of their populations. This pandemic killed many of the makers of the Amati School. Nicola Amati alone survived and thus became the bridge between the originators of the violin and the makers of the Golden Era. 

The Golden Era

The Golden Era of violin making is considered to be from around 1650 to the death of Giovanni Guadagnini in 1786. During this period, practically all of the great makers were students of the Amati School including Antonio Stradivari, who was an apprentice of Nicola Amati.

Jacob Stainer

Dave Ramsey Lie #5

#5 In Dave Ramsey's Continuing Series Of Lies

This is an excerpt from promotional material attempting to (illegally1) sell people the poor advice of one of Dave Ramsey's "Endorsed Local Providers"

"When Dave says you can expect to make 12% on your investments, he’s using a real number that’s based on the historical average annual return of the S&P 500. The current average annual return from 1926, the year of the S&P’s inception, through 2011 is 11.69%."

Let's take it one lie at a time. First, "He's using a real number that based on the historical average annual return of the S&P500." - True but intentionally deceiving.

This is one of many, many examples of Ramsey using the average person's ignorance against them. The statement itself is true. The deception comes in his use of the words "Average Annual Return". 
Knowledgeable financial professionals know the term is meaningless, and they know what Dave really means, but can't say, is "Compound Annual Growth Rate"


Let's look at it more closely;

"Annual Return" is, well, the annual return. If you begin the year with $100, and at the end of the year you have $110, you annual return is 10%. Simple? Yes. 

January 1       - $100
December 31 - $110
Return (or increase) - $10  *There can't be an "Average Annual Return", since there is only one year


Now, suppose at the end of the second year, you lose money and you end the year with $100 again. 

January 1       - $100
December 31 - $100
Return (or increase) - $0 

What is your total return for the 2 year period? 

ZERO. 

You started with $100 and at the end of two years you have $100. Your return is ZERO.
Every literate person can understand this.

But....

According to Dave "Liar" Ramsey, you made 5%.

He says your year 1 return was 10%. Your year 2 return was 0%.

10+0= 10 

divided by the number of years (2),

10/2 = 5

And viola! you have a "Average Annual Return" of 5%. 

Where is this $5 Dave? 

The Truth

Dave Ramsey is intentionally substituting the meaningless term 'Annual Average Return' for Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). 

The CAGR is the number legitimate Financial Advisers use, and, with accurate informational input, can give you realistic numbers to use in making major life planning decisions. 

Ramsey knows when he says 'Average Annual Return', most people will think 'Compound Annual Growth Rate', even though they don't know the term. "They will think Dave Ramsey said I can expect to gain 12% per year, every year."  


Addendum

The Compound Annual Growth Rate of the Standard and Poor's 500 Index for the period 1929 to 2011 is actually 2.43%2, a huge difference from Dave's 12% Lie, and the real-world difference between a comfortable retirement and abject poverty. 




1- Securities Law, including the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, make it illegal to profit from the sale of securities unless one is licensed. Dave Ramsey is not a licensed securities professional, but receives "kickbacks" from members of his ELP scam

2- Adjusted for Inflation